MarvelBlog News for November 6th, 2026
In this week’s MarvelBlog News, we discuss the box office of a movie that’s not out yet.
Sizing up the Competition
Let’s start the week with a link to this article on Yahoo!’s entertainment site.
The subject of this article centers on the box office for Avengers: Doomsday.
Photo: BBC
We’re now six weeks from the release of Disney’s biggest movie of the year.
Earlier in 2026, I would have referred to it as Marvel’s top film of 2026.
Photo: Marvel
Then, Spider-Man: Brand New Day shattered box office records and changed the conversation.
At one point this year, I would have called it a coin flip between the two films.
Photo: Marvel
Today, that’s no longer the case, as it’s too big an ask of Avengers: Doomsday.
Brand New Day is sitting in the clubhouse with $958.9 million domestically.
Photo: Marvel
Do you know how many films have earned $950 million domestically? One.
Similarly, the latest Spidey film opened to $360 million. Yeah, that’s a record.
Which film did Brand New Day beat for that title? It’s Avengers: Endgame.
So, the comparisons seem inevitable, and that’s bad news for Doomsday.
Should the film fall short of Brand New Day, Disney must answer questions as to why.
After all, Doomsday features every Avenger who ever lived plus three made up just for the film.
Photo: Marvel
I didn’t fact-check that statement, but I’m pretty sure it’s accurate.
Meanwhile, Brand New Day features exactly three MCU superheroes…plus that one.
Photo: Marvel
I will say no more in case you still haven’t seen the film. Let’s just say Doomsday wins on quantity.
We don’t know about quality yet. That fight won’t be easy, either.
Photo: Disney
Brand New Day is 90 percent fresh among Top Critics and 97 percent with everyone else.
On IMDb, it has a glowing score of 7.9, and it received an A Cinemascore to boot.
Photo: Marvel
Long story short, Brand New Day is arguably the most successful standalone superhero film since The Dark Knight.
Is That a Lot?
Photo: Marvel
That brings me to sunny point number two. Doomsday probably won’t beat Brand New Day’s opening weekend.
Box office fanatics know the reason why, but it’s a bit hard to explain.
Photo: Marvel
Doomsday will debut in theaters one week before Christmas, which is good news and bad news.
The bad news starts immediately. People are VERY busy at this time of year.
Photo: Marvel
They’re doing holiday shopping, planning their family visits, posting decorations, and so forth.
So, they’re not inclined to see a movie on opening weekend, as they know there’s no need.
Photo: Marvel
People attend movies when they have the free time and inclination to do so.
Starting around December 20th, consumers know they have a rare window.
Photo: Marvel
They can go see as many movies as they like from then through the start of the new year.
The calendar configuration plays a role in this behavior, allowing us to anticipate behavior.
Photo: Marvel
For 2026, the fun starts on December 18th and lasts through January 3rd.
On all those dates, even the weekdays, the box office will be universally terrific.
Photo: Marvel
Avengers: Doomsday will ultimately benefit from that, but it’ll take a while. I think.
That’s how it usually works. Some early tracking data is challenging that notion, though.
Photo: Marvel
According to Yahoo!, Doomsday has already sold $125 million in tickets.
This is when I reiterate that the movie doesn’t arrive in theaters for another six weeks.
Photo: Marvel
So, this is an absolutely staggering performance that suggests a true blockbuster.
Importantly, only a bit over half of those sales come from American movie theaters.
Photo: Marvel
Therefore, Doomsday has only locked in a domestic opening weekend of $65 million.
Stupid Sexy Spider-Man
Here’s the weird thing about that: It’s already a top-15 December opening ever!
Fifteenth place currently belongs to Five Nights at Freddy’s 2, which managed $64 million.
Photo: Marvel
I’d be surprised if Doomsday finishes outside the top three in this category.
The film will need an opening of $221 million to surpass Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi for third.
Photo: Marvel
Which movie owns the current December record? Hilariously, it’s Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Apparently, the biggest threat to the Avengers isn’t Doctor Doom but rather Peter Parker.
Photo: Marvel
The Yahoo! article suggests that the film could open north of $250 million.
If true, Doomsday holds a real chance at breaking the December opening weekend record.
Photo: Marvel
However, it’ll still fall at least $60 million short of Brand New Day.
That’s fine for Disney, though. It’s a box office marathon, not a sprint.
Photo: Marvel
Here’s where the release date really helps. Doomsday will soar quickly at the box office.
Its second week in theaters should nearly match its first in terms of total box office.
Photo: Marvel
I would expect Doomsday to reach $1.5 billion by mid-January, maybe even sooner.
Even then, it’ll still have a loooooong way to go to match Brand New Day, though.
Photo: Marvel
So, what’s the most important concern for Disney/Marvel? The film has to be good.
Word-of-mouth carried Brand New Day, and it could do the same for Doomsday.
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Image: Marvel
