MarvelBlog News for October 27th, 2024

Venom: The Last Dance just won the weekend at the box office, while Blade vanished from sight.

We’ve got two huge stories to discuss in MarvelBlog News.

Slightly Less Venomous

As I mentioned last week, Sony had known for a while that this Venom sequel wouldn’t prove as venomous.

The early tracking for Venom: The Last Dance was…fine. Had we not had two previous Venom films, I even would have described it as good.

That’s the problem intrinsic to being the third film in a successful franchise. The expectations are higher.

In 2018, Venom opened to $80.3 million. Then, Venom: Let There Be Carnage managed $90 million in October 2021.

That second performance was nothing short of spectacular, given that a pandemic was occurring at the time.

As I wrote three years ago, Venom 2 claimed the largest opening weekend since the pandemic’s beginning.

The film wouldn’t hold that title long, as another Sony film, Spider-Man: No Way Home, quickly obliterated everything.

Still, Venom: Let There Be Carnage showed how popular Tom Hardy was in the role.

Alas, something intangible has happened since then. For whatever reason, the character has waned in popularity.

That happens sometimes with stories, but there’s rarely a good reason why. It’s just part of pop culture.

One day, everyone loves hair metal or disco. Then, unwashed Seattle bands are whining into microphones, and grunge becomes a fad.

With Venom: The Last Dance, Sony tried to maintain the franchise’s moment, but other recent failures damaged the brand.

This happened from the outside, as attempts to expand Sony’s Spider-Man Universe failed dramatically.

While Morbius and Madame Web have nothing to do with Venom 3’s story, they diminished demand for more Sony-Marvel content.

Thus, Venom 3 struggled at the box office. It was predictable, but I swear it could have been worse.

Venom: The Last Dance by the Numbers

Venom 3 opened to a modest $51 million. I say modest because that debut reflects a significant step back from Venom 2’s $90 million.

Still, for a film with a $116 million budget, Venom 3 could be in worse shape.

That’s because its international box office tallied $124 million, giving The Last Dance a global debut of $175 million.

Generally, a comic book film needs to triple its budget to be in the black by the time it exits theaters.

Sometimes, the number is closer to 2.5x, but that when it does better domestically. Realistically, the breakeven range for Venom 3 is $350 million with these splits.

Since Hollywood productions earn a bigger cut domestically, a film needs a larger exponent to turn a profit if its revenue is primarily international.

So, Venom 3 is definitely trending toward needing a $350 million take as its breakeven number, but it also appears likely to get there.

That’s the happy side of the conversation. The less pleasing side is the film’s reception.

Rotten Tomatoes critics were NOT kind, grading the film at 36 percent among registered movie reviewers.

Then, we have the Cinemascore of B-, which is at least marginally better than Madame Web’s and Morbius’s C+ grades.

That’s how we should perceive Venom 3. It’s like Venom 2 or Venom, but it’s thankfully not in Madame Web territory.

Check back next week to learn how it did during its second weekend in theaters. I’m not overly optimistic, though.

History Repeats Itself

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Disney has delayed its Blade reboot.

No, that’s not accurate, as I’m underselling the matter. Disney has removed Blade from the schedule.

Yes, that’s bad. Of course, for those who have been paying attention, it’s not the least bit surprising.

In mid-June, Yann Demange, the director most recently attached to the project, dropped out.

Days later, the film’s theoretical star, Mahershala Ali, was obviously ticked off.

I say theoretical because at this point, virtually everyone wonders whether this film will ever happen with Ali.

And I say he was ticked off because his representation went public with how Ali had signed on five years ago.

To date, the dude still hasn’t filmed any of the project yet. This is a biography about Marvel behind-the-scenes chaos waiting to happen.

Notably, that doesn’t explicitly suggest that Ali is unhappy at this moment.

Streamer and Rotten Tomatoes critic John Rocha recently appeared on his podcast, which you can watch here:

 

According to this Tweet, Ali “reportedly told someone on the phone he’s very happy and excited with the current direction of ‘BLADE’ and has no problem with a delay.”

Mahershala Ali met with Marvel Studios recently and reportedly told someone on the phone he’s very happy and excited with the current direction of ‘BLADE’ and has no problem with a delay

(@TheRochaSays)
(https://t.co/M4HyrnmqGN) pic.twitter.com/qRrZKjVFe4

— MarvelDCNews (@MarvelNewsFilms) October 24, 2024

How credible is that report? Honestly, who even knows at this point?

I was just glancing at MarvelBlog’s archives, and this story seems to repeat itself every year or two.

Here’s a report from October 2022, and here’s another from March 2021.

We’re caught in a vicious circle where pre-production begins in earnest, everyone expresses excitement, a writer/director exits the project, and then Marvel delays the film.

Blade has become the new Duke Nukem Forever/Chinese Democracy.

What Does This Delay Indicate?

I know some of you want me to say that the project is dead. Realistically, it couldn’t possibly be.

If that were true, Marvel would have ripped off the Band-Aid by now.

The fact that they’re taking another social media drubbing instead suggests that there’s still a plan to make Blade. And there should be.

Marvel is working hard to level up the mystical side of the MCU, presumably in anticipation of a Midnight Suns superhero team.

Ali, an actor with multiple Academy Awards, should naturally anchor this squad.

Thus far, Marvel hasn’t found the perfect candidate to unlock the best story, as demonstrated by all the writers and directors so far.

To a larger point, Marvel/Disney didn’t end the project in June when the news broke that the director had left.

I’m guessing Marvel wanted someone else to take a swing since the current premise wasn’t working.

The company wouldn’t do that unless it still desired a Blade project.

As such, I believe that this is more of an acknowledgment of what we all knew in June.

Once the previous director dropped out, Blade was never going to receive a 2025 theatrical release.

A more reasonable timeline at this point is 2027 or possibly even later since Marvel is taking a ‘less is more’ approach with its theatrical releases.

Before then, I’m sure we’ll get plenty more stories about production moving forward and additional rumors that it’s not going well.

That’s the endless loop of the Blade reboot.

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